Ahead of our food-to-go safari in London later this month on March 20, we look at how the city's food-to-go landscape is changing and what could be next.
1. Healthier and veg led concepts playing a bigger role
Farmer J. Salad Project. atis. Three food-to-go operators with a growing footprint on the streets of London. Farmer J currently has 14 locations (including Farringdon, opening 5 March), The Salad Project is now up to seven locations, while atis has eight, with its ninth opening in Covent Garden on 14 March. We see a common thread between them in terms of their healthier, vegetable led positioning. It’s easy, in particular with atis and The Salad Project, to see them just as salad bars, but actually they’re doing a lot more than that, with bowls, plates and even stews playing a role in their propositions, helping to meet more customers' missions, more often. Farmer J has a different focus, based on its core field tray, which has been a major success. It’s been evolving as well – in its case not in back end ingredients but in its menu and delivery, with field trays being complemented by (smaller) field bowls, as well as a growing focus on breakfast.
2. Breakfast is an increasing priority
And Farmer J isn’t the only operator to be focusing more on breakfast. We’ve seen some great things from the likes of Coco di Mama with a range of egg boxes, while we’re also seeing others targeting this opportunity more strongly. Food halls, such as the new Market Halls Paddington, are starting to look more at breakfast missions - the new Market Halls Paddington that opens this week will include Farm Girl, focusing on brunch. Others looking more at meeting the breakfast mission include casual dining operators like GBK and coffee specialist WatchHouse, while it's also on the mind of a number of retailers.
3. An evolving coffee landscape
Coffee more broadly is an area where we’ve seen significant recent shifts. Blank Street and WatchHouse have perhaps been the two coffee operators that have captured the headlines, but Rosslyn Coffee, now with six locations, and Hagen, with 17, have both been adding more locations. Each have their distinctive attributes and strengths, and each feels to have its place in the changing coffee market. And at WatchHouse, we’re seeing a growing focus on bringing an enhanced food offer into more of its locations.
4. Shifting approaches within food retail
So amidst these changes, how is the opportunity for food retailers evolving, and what is the focus within urban supermarkets and convenience stores? Firstly, the meal deal remains a key element here. We’ve seen more tiering being introduced over recent years, and that’s provided a good platform for ranges to evolve within this structure, and particularly as part of premium meal deals. A key point however is that amidst operating challenges, not least around labour, we’ve seen some retailers pulling back from hot food-to-go, or, in the case of Tesco, letting others run it in-store on their behalf.
So what do we make of this? For us, this doesn’t mean the hot food opportunity has shrunk, as we see lots of opportunity here, but it does require resource and focus to get it right. Where you differentiate you can succeed, but where you follow, you instantly restrict your opportunity.
5. Chicken remains hot
Definitionally, you might see this as more around fast food, driven by the likes of Dave’s Hot Chicken most recently, as well as the likes of Popeyes and Wingstop. But the likes of Wasabi have long had chicken as a core pillar of their hot food offer. And the growth of operators such as Assenheim 56 has been underpinned, among other things, by great chicken. There's more opportunity for differentiation here, and we'll see more North American concepts coming to the UK this year, including Chick-fil-A, which plans to open in four UK cities (including London) later this year.
6. Value vs. experience remains a key consideration
The economic backdrop for London consumers is mixed, and to our minds highly individualised. Which doesn’t make it easy when you’re thinking about price positions and customer targeting. Protein add ons are one way we’re seeing the balance between affordability and personalisation being managed, but our key guidance here is to keep close to trading patterns and be flexible, as for many consumers these are not easy economic times. What is clear however is that there's a greater focus on experience across the broader hospitality sector, something which can justify spending more in the eyes of consumers. The next step is to better articulate this into the broader food-to-go sector. There are already some strong examples to learn from across a variety of channels and cities.
What could be next?
1. More bowl evolution. Operators such as Foodmaker and Exki in Belgium do great things on the grab & go side of bowls, while a range of operators across Europe are making more of poké bowls than we see right now.
2. More Asian opportunities. On a recent visit to the US West Coast, we were struck by the development of a range of Asian options, many Korean and Japanese led. We should expect further evolution and expansion here.
3. More Latin American development, especially Mexican. In other markets we’re seeing Mexican operators, such as Zócalo, Zambrero and Taco Bar, extend more into evening missions. There are also many more layers of Mexican cuisine that could play a role in the food-to-go market.
4. Celebrating service and experience. Linked to the value vs. experience point, this will become a more important differentiator. More technology (and not just as a route to order, as witnessed by the growth of Sweetgreen's Infinite Kitchen for example) and more production off site are set to be features of the broader evolution of the market, given the challenges around labour. Elevating and driving greater consistency in experience, in our view, should be a growing priority for operators in the current environment - we see them as critical to longer term success.
Want to find out more about the London food-to-go landscape? Join us on 20 March for our latest London food-to-go safari, click here for more details.
Want to hear more about our latest global thinking on food-to-go? Why not join us at lunch! North on 12 March in Mancheser. Sign up for free here.
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